ALPEXSOLAR Q1 FY27 earnings call.
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Revenue
₹500 Cr
verified against source
Revenue YoY
—
reported change
EBITDA
₹80 Cr
latest reported figure
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What the record says.
Alpex Solar delivered a strong Q1 FY27 with ₹500 crore revenue, ₹80 crore EBITDA (16% margin), and ₹40 crore PAT (8% margin). The 2.2 GW TOPCon cell line is on track for mid-September commissioning despite a month-long delay from a fire incident, targeting 26.5% efficiency. Management guides for ₹4,000 crore FY28 revenue as the cell business (35-40% EBITDA margins) supplements module operations. The 5 GW wafer/ingot expansion is underway with 70-80% planning complete, aligned with the ALWM mandate effective June 2028. The company's integrated model—modules, cells, aluminium frames (12,000 MT, expanding to 18,000 MT), and EPC—positions it competitively against peers struggling with overcapacity. Management emphasized selectivity in module orders and plans to migrate to main board by Q4 FY27. Risk: industry-wide module capacity glut (100+ GW vs 65-70 GW annual demand) could pressure standalone players, while Chinese competition remains intense on global exports.
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Guidance to track
- At full 2.2 GW cell capacity, management estimates 1 GW generates ₹2,000-2,200 crore, enabling ₹4,000 crore full-year revenue.
- TOPCon cell manufacturing commands 35-40% EBITDA margins, substantially above current 16% blended margins, with PAT margins of 20-25% expected.
- Commissioning around September 10-11 with inauguration by a high-profile politician, first invoice expected September 19-20, ramping within 30 days.
- Will qualify to file after February 15, then file documents immediately; exchange approval typically takes 2-3 months thereafter.
Risks flagged
- India has 150+ GW module capacity vs 65-70 GW annual demand; 100+ GW may become defunct as ALCM/ALWM enforced, threatening standalone module-only manufacturers.
- A fire damaged critical areas of the cell plant, pushing commissioning from August to mid-September; 30-day ramp-up adds further timeline risk.
- Despite claiming competitiveness, management acknowledged India has structural disadvantages in raw material costs, interest rates, and electricity tariffs vs Chinese manufacturers.
- By June 2028, wafer capacity (40 GW) will cap effective module/cell capacity at 40 GW; players without wafer integration face margin pressure even with cell lines operational.
Key quotes
- We have spent almost 890 crores on the cell line. Our total debt is just 341 odd crores because we are still spending some money. So it won't be more than 350-360 crores on the cell business.
- Those who have complete integration will survive, not only survive, they will thrive also and they will expand also. And those who will get struck at only one item of the value chain will suffer.
- 1 GW fetches anywhere around 2,300-2,400 crore. Assuming we do even 70% of that, we should be able to do 4,000 crore easily in the next full financial year.
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