Coalindia vs Bajajfinsv Q2 FY24

Coal India reported a solid H1 FY24 with production up 12% YoY and offtake up 9% YoY, driven by robust power demand (33% growth in October). Management reiterated the FY24 production target of 780 million tons and FY25 target of 851 million tons, supported by improving evacuation infrastructure and MDO ramp-up. E-auction premiums remain strong at 90% over notified price, though management sees no near-term FSA price hike for the power sector. The company is on track to achieve 1 billion tons by FY27, contingent on demand. Key risks include land acquisition delays (e.g., MCL's Basundhara stoppage) and railway rake shortages in SECL and MCL, which could constrain dispatches.

Guidance read

FY24 production target of 780 million tons: Management confirmed the annual production target of 780 million tons for FY24, with H1 production up 12% YoY. FY25 production target of 851 million tons: Management guided for FY25 production of 851 million tons, implying ~9% YoY growth. E-auction volume at 15% of production in H2: Management expects e-auction volumes to be 15% of production in H2 FY24. MDO production to reach 55-60 million tons by FY26: MDO projects are expected to contribute 20-25 million tons in FY25 and 55-60 million tons in FY26.

Risk read

Key risks include Land acquisition delays at MCL — MCL's Basundhara coal field faced a 26-day stoppage due to land compensation disputes, impacting production.; Railway rake shortages in SECL and MCL — Management acknowledged daily rake shortages of 5 rakes in SECL and MCL, constraining dispatches.; E-auction premium volatility — E-auction premiums have been volatile, ranging from 50-60% to 90%, dependent on demand and import prices.; No near-term FSA price hike for power sector — Management ruled out any FSA price hike for the power sector in the next 7-8 months, limiting revenue growth..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Bajaj Finserv delivered a strong Q2 FY24 with consolidated revenue up 25% YoY to INR 26,023 crore and PAT up 24% YoY to INR 1,929 crore. Growth was driven by robust performance across subsidiaries: BAGIC reported a 95.3% combined ratio (lowest in 14 quarters) and 39% PAT growth, while BALIC saw NBV growth of 25% to INR 237 crore. BFL continued its momentum with 33% AUM growth and asset quality improvement. The AMC business launched with INR 5,235 crore AUM. Management guided for continued balanced growth, with BAGIC targeting sub-100% combined ratio despite near-term investment costs. Key risk: elevated claims volatility in government health and crop insurance segments could pressure underwriting profitability.

Guidance read

BAGIC combined ratio to be slightly above 100% for next few quarters: Due to investments in manpower and rural expansion, combined ratio may temporarily exceed 100% before normalizing. BALIC NBV growth expected to continue with product mix improvement: Management expects NBV growth to sustain as par product mix improves and new bank partnerships contribute. BFL to maintain long-term financial guidance metrics: BFL continues to deliver on AUM growth, profitability, and asset quality targets as per its stated guidance.

Risk read

Key risks include Government health business claims volatility — The Gujarat government health scheme may have higher loss ratios due to backlog claims, though 80% is reinsured.; Expense ratio normalization pressure — BAGIC's expense ratio may rise as investments in manpower and rural branches continue, impacting near-term profitability.; Competition in crop insurance and government health — Analyst raised concern about sustainability of crop and government health business given competitive pricing and tender-based nature.; BALIC VNB margin compression from product mix shift — Higher share of lower-margin products (ULIP, non-par) and investments in new channels may keep VNB margins below prior year levels..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.