Cipla Management Guidance Tracker
48 forward-looking guidance items tracked across 12 quarters.
Margins
Management raised FY24 EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 23%, up from earlier 22% guidance, driven by strong Q1 performance and confidence across markets.
Q2 FY24EBITDA margin guidance raised to 23-24% for FY24TrackedManagement increased full-year EBITDA margin guidance from 23% to 23-24%, with bias towards the higher end.
Q3 FY24FY24 EBITDA margin at higher end of 23-24%ActiveFull-year EBITDA margin trending at the higher end of the previously guided range of 23-24%.
Q4 FY24FY25 EBITDA margin guidance of 24.5%-25.5%TrackedManagement expects EBITDA margin expansion of up to 100 bps over FY24's 24.5%, driven by cost measures and portfolio mix.
Q1 FY25EBITDA margin guidance of 24.5%-25.5% for FY25ActiveManagement reiterated EBITDA margin range of 24.5%-25.5% for the full year, despite strong Q1 performance.
Q2 FY25EBITDA margin guidance maintained at 24.5%-25.5% for FY25TrackedManagement reiterated full-year EBITDA margin guidance despite Q2 margin of 26.7%, expecting normalized Q3 and Q4.
Q3 FY25FY25 EBITDA margin to exceed guidanceActiveEBITDA for FY25 is trending higher than earlier guidance of 24.5%-25.5%, with Q3 margin at 28% but not sustainable.
Q4 FY25FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of 23.5%-24.5%TrackedManagement guided EBITDA margin in the range of 23.5%-24.5% for FY26, reflecting confidence despite Revlimid exclusivity loss.
Q1 FY26FY26 EBITDA margin guidance maintained at 23.5%-24.5%TrackedManagement reiterated the full-year EBITDA margin range despite Q1 margin of 25.6% being above the range, citing potential Revlimid phasing and R&D investments.
Q2 FY26FY26 EBITDA margin guidance revised to 22.75%-24%TrackedFull-year EBITDA margin guidance lowered from 23.5%-24.5% due to higher R&D spend and declining Revlimid contribution.
Q3 FY26FY26 EBITDA margin guidance revised to ~21%ActiveManagement lowered FY26 EBITDA margin guidance to ~21% from earlier expectations, citing lower lanreotide and Lenalidomide impact.
Q4 FY26FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5-20%TrackedManagement expects EBITDA margins in the range of 18.5-20% for FY27, with sequential improvement and stronger H2.
Growth
Cipla expects to file generic Symbicort (respiratory product) by the end of calendar year 2023.
Q1 FY244-5 peptide launches in next two yearsTrackedCipla plans to launch 4-5 peptide products over the next two years, with a couple of new peptide filings in the same period.
Q1 FY24Advair launch within 12 months via de-riskingTrackedGeneric Advair is being transferred to an in-house facility; launch expected within 12 months with no incremental generic competition anticipated.
Q2 FY24Generic Symbicort filing in Q3 FY24ActiveCipla plans to file generic Symbicort in Q3 FY24, having completed clinical studies.
Q2 FY24Peptide product launch in Q4 FY24ActiveOne peptide product launch planned in Q4 FY24, with 3-4 more in FY25.
Q3 FY24Advair filing by mid-FY25TrackedAdvair generic expected to be filed by mid-FY25 from an alternate site, with approval likely by end of next fiscal.
Q3 FY24Four peptide launches in FY25TrackedFour peptide launches planned in FY25, with one asset awaiting approval expected in Q1 FY25.
Q3 FY24Symbicort filing completedTrackedFiled generic Symbicort and one other inhalation asset; second site transfer to be added before approval.
Q4 FY24Launch of 4 peptide assets in FY25TrackedTargeting to launch four peptide assets during the fiscal year.
Q1 FY25Two peptide launches expected in H2 FY25TrackedTwo additional peptide products are expected to launch in Q3 and Q4 of FY25, with two more following in subsequent years.
Q1 FY25Advair filing by end of 2024, potential launch in H1 CY2025TrackedANDA filing for Advair expected by December 2024 or January 2025, with potential launch in first half of calendar 2025.
Q2 FY25Generic Advair launch expected in H1 FY2026TrackedRisking of generic Advair progressing as per expectations; launch targeted for first half of fiscal 2026.
Q2 FY25One India to outpace market growth on full-year basisTrackedManagement expects India business to revert to growth trajectory with respiratory uptick in Q3 and outpace market growth for the full year.
Q3 FY25Generic Advair launch in late H1 FY26ActiveCipla plans to launch generic Advair from its US facility in late first half of FY26, with de-risking progressing as expected.
Q3 FY25Abraxane launch in H2 FY26TrackedAbraxane launch expected from Goa facility post-approval, likely in back end of second half FY26 (Q4 FY26).
Q4 FY25Advair launch expected in FY26TrackedAdvair will be commercialized from the U.S. facility, with launch expected in FY26 depending on FDA prioritization.
Q4 FY25Two to three peptide launches in FY26TrackedCipla aims to launch two to three peptide assets in FY26, with one expected to be a large asset.
Q1 FY26India branded business to grow in line with IPM in next three quartersActiveCOO expressed confidence that India branded prescription business will grow at industry rates for the remaining quarters of FY26.
Q2 FY26Launch of four major respiratory assets by CY26TrackedIncludes generic Advair in Q4 2026 and three peptide assets including liraglutide.
Q3 FY26U.S. launches: 4 respiratory and 4 peptide assets in FY27TrackedPipeline includes generic Advair, two other large respiratory assets (likely Symbicort), and three peptide launches including generic Victoza.
Q4 FY26India business to deliver double-digit growth in FY27-28TrackedManagement expects strong double-digit and market-beating growth in India for FY27 and FY28.
Revenue
Management guided US revenue of $220-225M as sustainable for the next quarter.
Q4 FY24North America revenue growth aspiration for FY25TrackedAim to grow top line YoY, backed by commercial execution of existing portfolio and new launches.
Q1 FY25U.S. sustainable quarterly run rate of $235-240 millionActiveExpect U.S. business to settle at $235-240 million per quarter going forward, excluding one-time benefits.
Q3 FY25FY26 top-line growth guidance retainedTrackedManagement reiterated guidance to grow top line in FY26, with further profitability guidance to be provided after budget finalization.
Q4 FY25U.S. revenue run rate of ~$220 million for Q1 FY26ActiveManagement indicated U.S. revenue for the next quarter is expected to be around $220 million, factoring in Revlimid compression.
Q1 FY26US revenue target of ~$1 billion by FY27TrackedCEO stated pipeline (including respiratory launches like generic Symbicort) should get US revenue closer to or surpass $1 billion by FY27.
Q2 FY26Generic Revlimid contribution immaterial from Q3 FY26ActiveRevlimid revenue expected to be very small in Q3 and decline further as patent expires in January.
Q2 FY26US revenue directional target of $1B next yearTrackedRun-rate expected to reach $1B in US revenue during next fiscal year, subject to approval timelines.
Q4 FY26US business to reach $1B run-rate by FY27-endTrackedCipla targets a $1 billion annualized run-rate for US business by end of FY27, driven by respiratory and peptide launches.
Capex
Other
Supply challenges expected to be resolved by end of Q3, with sharp recovery in lanreotide franchise from Q4 FY25.
Q3 FY26Lanreotide resupply expected in H1 FY27TrackedPartner Pharmathen paused production; resupply expected in H1 FY27, with alternate site evaluation underway.
Q3 FY26FY27 guidance to be provided next quarterTrackedManagement will provide FY27 guidance after finalizing the annual operating plan.
Q4 FY26R&D spend to remain around 7% of salesActiveR&D investment will continue at approximately 7% of revenue, supporting complex generics and biosimilars pipeline.