Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Q1 FY26

BP

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Q1 FY26 · Diversified

BPCL reported Q1 FY26 standalone PAT of INR 6,124 crore and consolidated PAT of INR 6,839 crore, with revenue from operations at INR 1,229,578 crore. Refinery GRM fell sharply to $4.88/bbl from $7.86/bbl YoY, driven by lower Russian crude discounts (~$1.5/bbl) and inventory buildup. Marketing margins remained strong due to stable retail fuel prices amid lower crude, while LPG under-recovery averaged INR 150/cylinder. The government announced INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation, with BPCL expecting INR 7,500-8,000 crore. Management guided FY26 capex of INR 20,000 crore, rising to INR 35,000 crore by FY28. Key risk: potential auto fuel price cuts if crude stays below $70/bbl, compressing marketing margins.

Guidance read

FY26 capex guidance of INR 20,000 crore: Management reiterated capex of INR 20,000 crore for FY26, with INR 2,382 crore spent in Q1. Retail outlet network target of 25,000 by FY26 end: BPCL aims to expand its retail outlet network to 25,000 by the end of the current financial year. FY27 capex expected at INR 22,000-25,000 crore: Management guided FY27 capex in the range of INR 22,000-25,000 crore based on current approved projects. Russian crude share to remain 30-35%: Management expects Russian crude procurement to stay around 30-35% as long as no new sanctions are imposed.

Risk read

Key risks include Potential auto fuel price cuts — If crude prices remain below $70/bbl, there is risk of government-mandated retail price cuts, compressing marketing margins.; Mozambique project delays — The Mozambique LNG project continues to face delays; management expects positive news this quarter but no firm timeline.; Competition in diesel segment — Private players are offering discounts in the direct diesel segment, impacting BPCL's market share (29.59% in Q1).; LPG compensation uncertainty — Details of the INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation (tranche period, accounting treatment) are still awaited from the ministry..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

ON

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

Q1 FY26 · Diversified

ONGC reported consolidated PAT of INR 11,552 crore for Q1 FY26, up 18.2% YoY, driven by higher other income from HVCR and lower statutory levies due to SAED abolition. Standalone PAT fell 10.2% to INR 8,024 crore on lower crude realizations (INR 66.13/bbl vs INR 83.05/bbl). Crude oil production rose 1.2% YoY to 4.683 MMT, reversing decline, while gas production was flat at 4.846 BCM. KG Basin output reached 30,000 bbl/d oil and 3 mmscmd gas, with ramp-up to 45,000 bbl/d and 6-7 mmscmd gas expected from Q4 FY26 after living quarter installation. New Well Gas contributed INR 1,703 crore revenue at a 20% premium. OPaL turned EBITDA positive at INR 13 crore. Risks include further delays in KG Basin ramp-up and sustained low crude prices.

Guidance read

KG Basin ramp-up to 45,000 bbl/d oil and 6-7 mmscmd gas by Q4 FY26: KG Basin oil production to increase from 30,000 bbl/d to 45,000 bbl/d and gas from 3 mmscmd to 6-7 mmscmd by Q4 FY26, after living quarter installation in Nov-Dec 2025. FY26 standalone production guidance: 20.928 MMT crude oil, 20.110 BCM gas: Management guided standalone crude oil production of 20.928 MMT and gas production of 20.110 BCM for FY26. FY27 standalone production guidance: 21 MMT crude oil, 21.487 BCM gas: Management guided standalone crude oil production of 21 MMT and gas production of 21.487 BCM for FY27. New Well Gas volume to reach 4.8+ BCM in FY27 (24-25% of total gas): New Well Gas volume expected to increase from 2.6 BCM in FY26 to 4.8+ BCM in FY27, representing 24-25% of total gas production.

Risk read

Key risks include KG Basin ramp-up delays — KG Basin production ramp-up delayed from Q2 to Q4 FY26 due to unavailability of living quarter vessel and monsoon. Further delays could impact FY26 production targets.; Sustained low crude oil prices — Crude oil realization fell 20% YoY to INR 66.13/bbl. If prices remain low, standalone profitability could be further impacted.; OPaL debt burden and petrochemical cycle risk — OPaL has debt of INR 24,800 crore. While EBITDA turned positive, profitability depends on petrochemical cycle upturn. Management has no immediate plans to infuse equity.; Operating cost inflation — Operating expenses rose 7.6% YoY due to higher FPSO charges and LNG costs. Cost reduction initiatives (Pipavav port, crew boats) are yet to show material impact..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.