Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Maruti Q4 FY25

BPCL reported Q4 FY25 revenue of INR 1,26,865 crore and PAT of INR 3,214 crore, supported by strong refining throughput of 10.58 MMT (121% capacity) and GRM of $9.2/bbl (premium of $3.16/bbl over Singapore). Marketing sales grew 1.82% YoY to 13.42 MMT, with record annual lubricant sales of 472 TMT. The company maintained a healthy balance sheet with net debt-to-equity of 0.13. Management guided for FY26 CapEx of INR 20,000 crore, rising to INR 30,000 crore by FY28, driven by CGD, Mozambique, and petrochemical projects. LPG under-recovery remains a drag at ~INR 170/cylinder, though a government mechanism is hoped for. Key risk: sustained LPG under-recovery without compensation could pressure cash flows amid elevated CapEx.

Guidance read

FY26 CapEx of INR 20,000 crore: Capital expenditure for FY26 is budgeted at INR 20,000 crore, with INR 5,900 crore for refineries, INR 5,600 crore for marketing, and INR 2,400 crore for pipelines. CapEx ramp-up to INR 30,000 crore by FY28: Management expects CapEx to increase to INR 25,000 crore in FY27 and INR 30,000 crore in FY28, excluding the Andhra Pradesh greenfield project. GRM guidance of $7-$9/bbl: Assuming current spreads and Russian discounts of ~$3/bbl continue, management expects GRMs in the $7-$9/bbl range. Mozambique project restart by July 2025: Operator expects force majeure to be lifted by July 2025, with project completion targeted by July 2028.

Risk read

Key risks include LPG under-recovery without compensation — LPG under-recovery is ~INR 170/cylinder, costing INR 650-700 crore per month. No government compensation mechanism has been announced, which could pressure cash flows.; Russian crude discount compression — Russian crude discounts have narrowed to ~$3/bbl from $8/bbl a year ago. Further compression could reduce refining margins, especially as new buyers (Turkey, Syria) emerge.; Mozambique project cost overruns — Project cost has escalated from $15.4 billion to an estimated $19.4 billion. Further delays or cost increases could impact BPCL's investment returns.; Market share loss in retail fuels — BPCL has lost some market share in petrol and diesel due to aggressive private sector competition. Management expects recovery through network expansion, but near-term pressure persists..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

Maruti Suzuki reported Q4 FY25 net sales of ₹38,800 crore (+5.7% YoY) and net profit of ₹3,710 crore (-4.1% YoY), impacted by higher other expenses, new plant overheads, and adverse mix. Volumes hit a record 604,635 units (+3.5% YoY), driven by exports (+8.1%) and calibrated wholesale dispatches. EBITDA margin contracted due to 90 bps lumpy expenses, 40 bps adverse mix, and 30 bps from Kharkhoda plant ramp-up, partly offset by lower sales promotion and operating leverage. Management guided for ~20% export growth in FY26 and two new SUV launches, including the e Vitara EV. Domestic industry growth is expected at a modest 1-2%. Key risk: sustained pressure on entry-level demand and potential steel price hikes post-safeguard duty.

Guidance read

Export growth of ~20% in FY26: Management expects exports to grow by at least 20% in FY26, building on the 17.5% growth in FY25. Domestic industry growth of 1-2% in FY26: Maruti forecasts a modest 1-2% growth for the domestic PV industry in FY26, with the company aiming to outperform. Two new model launches in FY26: Plans to launch the e Vitara EV and another SUV in FY26, with e Vitara sales starting in H1. Capex guidance of ₹8,000-9,000 crore for FY26: Capital expenditure for FY26 is expected to be in the range of ₹8,000-9,000 crore, including SMG.

Risk read

Key risks include Steel price inflation post-safeguard duty — Management flagged that domestic steel producers may use the safeguard duty to raise prices, impacting margins.; Sustained weakness in entry-level demand — Chairman noted 88% of the country is not participating in car growth, with entry-level segment shrinking.; EV profitability overhang — Management acknowledged EVs will have much lower profitability than ICE vehicles, potentially dragging overall margins.; New plant ramp-up costs — Kharkhoda plant contributed 30 bps margin headwind in Q4; full benefit of scale will take time..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.