Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Bajajfinsv Q3 FY25

BPCL reported Q3 FY25 revenue of INR 127,521 crore and PAT of INR 4,649 crore, with refinery throughput at 107% of nameplate capacity despite planned shutdowns. GRM stood at $5.6/bbl, impacted by lower Russian crude processing (31% vs 34-35% earlier) and shutdowns. Marketing volumes grew 4% YoY, but ATF volumes declined due to customer loss. Management highlighted risks from potential reduction in Russian crude discounts and LPG under-recovery of INR 7,228 crore, though they expect government support. Capex guidance for FY26 is ~INR 19,000 crore, with Bina petchem project on track for May 2027 completion. Renewable energy targets include 2 GW by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030. Key risk: sustained decline in Russian crude availability could compress GRMs.

Guidance read

Bina petrochemical project completion by May 2027: The integrated refinery and petrochemical expansion at Bina, with a total capex of INR 49,000 crore, is on schedule for completion by May 2027. Capex guidance for FY26 at ~INR 19,000 crore: Indicative capex for FY26 is around INR 19,000 crore, with major allocations to CGD expansion and Bina project. Renewable energy target of 2 GW by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030: BPCL aims to achieve 2 GW of renewable capacity by FY26 and 10 GW by 2030, with a capex of INR 10,000 crore over the next two years. CGD business to turn EBITDA positive from FY26: Management expects the CGD business to generate positive EBITDA from FY26 onwards, driven by volume growth and cost pass-through.

Risk read

Key risks include Reduction in Russian crude availability — Russian crude processing may drop from 31% to ~20% in March due to sanctions, potentially reducing GRM benefits from discounts.; LPG under-recovery not compensated — BPCL has a net negative buffer of INR 7,228 crore from LPG under-recovery; if government does not compensate, earnings could be impacted.; ATF volume decline due to customer loss — ATF volumes declined significantly after losing a customer in a tender; recovery depends on winning new customers.; Capex execution and debt levels — Large capex plans (INR 1.7 lakh crore) could push debt/equity to 1.1x; any delays or cost overruns may strain balance sheet..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Bajaj Finserv reported a mixed Q3 FY25. Consolidated revenue grew 10% YoY to INR 32,042 crore, while PAT rose 3% to INR 2,231 crore. Excluding unrealized MTM, core PAT grew 23%. BAGIC delivered strong performance with 39% PAT growth and a combined ratio of 101.1%, though top-line growth was distorted by regulatory changes. BALIC saw muted individual-rated new business growth due to product mix recalibration and new surrender regulations, but retail protection surged 96% YoY. Bajaj Finance posted a healthy quarter with 26% net income growth and ROE of 19.08%. Management emphasized a shift toward profitable growth, particularly in life insurance, with VNB growth prioritized over top-line. Key risks include prolonged disruption from surrender regulation adjustments and competitive pressure in health insurance. The Allianz JV exit discussions remain preliminary.

Guidance read

BALIC VNB growth to outpace top-line growth: Management expects VNB to grow faster than top-line due to product structure changes and focus on profitability. BAGIC to maintain combined ratio better than market: Continued focus on profitable growth with combined ratio superior to industry average. BFL to reduce loan losses next year: Management committed to bringing down loan losses in the coming year.

Risk read

Key risks include Surrender regulation disruption in life insurance — New surrender value guidelines have impacted product mix and distribution, with agency channel taking longer to adjust.; Health insurance pricing and commission pressures — IRDAI capping senior citizen premium hikes and EOM limits may pressure margins, though Bajaj is well-positioned.; Allianz JV exit uncertainty — Allianz's intention to exit the JV is at preliminary stage; no details provided, creating strategic uncertainty..

Promise ledger

Of 3 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 3 missed.