Bharat Petroleum Corporation vs Bajajfinsv Q1 FY26

BPCL reported Q1 FY26 standalone PAT of INR 6,124 crore and consolidated PAT of INR 6,839 crore, with revenue from operations at INR 1,229,578 crore. Refinery GRM fell sharply to $4.88/bbl from $7.86/bbl YoY, driven by lower Russian crude discounts (~$1.5/bbl) and inventory buildup. Marketing margins remained strong due to stable retail fuel prices amid lower crude, while LPG under-recovery averaged INR 150/cylinder. The government announced INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation, with BPCL expecting INR 7,500-8,000 crore. Management guided FY26 capex of INR 20,000 crore, rising to INR 35,000 crore by FY28. Key risk: potential auto fuel price cuts if crude stays below $70/bbl, compressing marketing margins.

Guidance read

FY26 capex guidance of INR 20,000 crore: Management reiterated capex of INR 20,000 crore for FY26, with INR 2,382 crore spent in Q1. Retail outlet network target of 25,000 by FY26 end: BPCL aims to expand its retail outlet network to 25,000 by the end of the current financial year. FY27 capex expected at INR 22,000-25,000 crore: Management guided FY27 capex in the range of INR 22,000-25,000 crore based on current approved projects. Russian crude share to remain 30-35%: Management expects Russian crude procurement to stay around 30-35% as long as no new sanctions are imposed.

Risk read

Key risks include Potential auto fuel price cuts — If crude prices remain below $70/bbl, there is risk of government-mandated retail price cuts, compressing marketing margins.; Mozambique project delays — The Mozambique LNG project continues to face delays; management expects positive news this quarter but no firm timeline.; Competition in diesel segment — Private players are offering discounts in the direct diesel segment, impacting BPCL's market share (29.59% in Q1).; LPG compensation uncertainty — Details of the INR 30,000 crore LPG compensation (tranche period, accounting treatment) are still awaited from the ministry..

Promise ledger

Of 2 tracked promises, management 0 met, 0 close, 2 missed.

Bajaj Finserv reported a strong Q1 FY26 with consolidated PAT up 30% YoY to INR 2,789 crore, driven by robust performance across insurance and lending subsidiaries. Bajaj Allianz Life saw VNB growth of 39% and margin expansion of 420bps to 11.1%, reflecting successful execution of BALIC 2.0 strategy. Bajaj Allianz General maintained a combined ratio of 103.6% (102.5% ex-one-by-N impact) with core business growing 15% ex-crop and government health. Bajaj Finance added 4.69 million new customers and expects to disburse over 50 million loans in FY26. Bajaj Housing Finance grew AUM 24% YoY. The Allianz exit process is progressing with regulatory approvals received. Key risks include elevated competition in general insurance and potential slowdown in group protection due to MFI sector headwinds.

Guidance read

BFL expects to disburse over 50 million new loans in FY26: Bajaj Finance guided for over 50 million new loan disbursements in full-year FY26, up from 13.49 million in Q1. BFL expects to add 14-16 million new customers in FY26: Bajaj Finance expects to add 14-16 million new customers in FY26, with 4.69 million added in Q1. BALIC expects H2 growth to be 'significantly comfortable': Management indicated that H2 growth will be significantly comfortable due to favorable base effects and strategy execution. BAGIC aims to maintain combined ratio close to 100%: Management reiterated its endeavor to keep combined ratio close to 100%, despite current elevated levels.

Risk read

Key risks include Intense competition in general insurance — Competition remains high across motor, health, and crop segments, potentially pressuring pricing and combined ratios.; Group protection degrowth due to MFI slowdown — BALIC's group protection business declined 7% YoY, largely due to slowdown in MFI lending, which is outside management's control.; Persistency dips in 13-month bucket — BALIC observed lower persistency in the 13-month bucket due to base effect of higher ticket size policies written in Q4 FY24.; Potential impact of tender-based crop business pricing — Management noted that crop tender pricing is below comfortable levels, which could lead to lower win rates or adverse loss ratios..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.