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ASIANPAINT Consumer 31 Oct 2023

Asianpaint Ltd — Q2 FY24

Asian Paints reported a muted Q2 FY24 with decorative paint volume growth of 6% YoY but value growth flat, impacted by weak consumer sentiment and erratic monsoons.

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Revenue ₹8,479 Cr
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Duration
Read Time 1 min read

✓ Verified against BSE filing

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✦ AI-Generated from Full Transcript

Asian Paints reported a muted Q2 FY24 with decorative paint volume growth of 6% YoY but value growth flat, impacted by weak consumer sentiment and erratic monsoons. However, gross margins expanded to 43.9% (up ~770bps YoY on consolidated basis) aided by 4% material deflation. Management attributed the softness to a shift in festive season (Diwali in November vs October last year) and expects a strong H2 recovery led by festive and wedding demand. The company maintained its double-digit volume CAGR trajectory and guided for a good Q3. Key risks include rising crude prices due to geopolitical tensions, which could reverse deflation benefits, and continued weakness in Nepal and Bangladesh operations.

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Quarter Snapshot

Decorative Paint Volume Growth 6%
down from ~12% in Q2 FY23

Volume growth moderated to 6% in Q2 FY24 vs double-digit in prior year quarter, reflecting weak demand.

Retail Touchpoints 1.6 lakh
+5,000 in H1 FY24

Distribution network expanded to 1.6 lakh retail touchpoints, with 5,000 added in H1.

New Product Contribution 11%
flat YoY

New products contributed 11% of revenue, indicating sustained innovation pipeline.

Home Décor Revenue Share 4%
flat YoY

Home décor contributed 4% of decorative revenue; kitchen & bath saw double-digit declines.

What Changed vs Last Quarter

Comparing Q2 FY24 vs Q1 FY24
3 new guidance3 dropped3 new risk3 risk resolved
NEW
Double-digit volume growth trajectory maintained

Management reiterated commitment to double-digit volume CAGR, expecting Q3 to recover with festive and wedding demand.

NEW
Distribution expansion of 8,000-10,000 touchpoints in FY24

Target to add 8,000-10,000 retail touchpoints in FY24, with 5,000 already added in H1.

NEW
CapEx projects on track: white cement by Dec 2025, VAM/VAE by Q4 2026

White cement project in Fujairah expected by Dec 2025; VAM/VAE project by Q4 2026. Brownfield expansions largely complete.

UPDATED
PBDIT margin band of 18-20%

Management guided that PBDIT margins will remain in the 18-20% range, balancing input cost inflation and pricing actions.

DROPPED
Home decor to reach 7%-8% of decorative sales by FY26

Target for home decor segment to contribute 7%-8% of decorative revenue by end of FY26.

DROPPED
Beautiful Homes stores to expand to 65-70 by year-end

Plans to increase Beautiful Homes stores from 44 to 65-70 during the current fiscal year.

DROPPED
Capex of INR 8,750 crore over three years

Capacity expansion plan of INR 8,750 crore over three years is on schedule.

NEW RISK
Rising crude prices may reverse deflation benefits

Management noted that geopolitical tensions could increase crude and derivative prices, potentially leading to input cost inflation in H2.

NEW RISK
Uncertainty in international markets (Nepal, Bangladesh, Egypt)

AP Global saw degrowth due to currency depreciation in Egypt and weak demand in Nepal/Bangladesh; management expressed uncertainty about recovery.

NEW RISK
Potential market share loss to unorganized sector if downtrading persists

Analyst raised concern about downtrading to economy products; management acknowledged shift but claimed organized sector gaining share from unorganized.

RISK GONE
Raw material price resurgence

Crude oil at all-time high and some raw material prices rising could pressure margins if deflation reverses.

RISK GONE
Weakness in luxury segment

Luxury paint segment underperformed in Q1, which could persist if consumer sentiment remains cautious.

RISK GONE
International business headwinds

Currency devaluation and economic crisis in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka impacted international profitability; recovery uncertain.

Fast read

Guidance and risk preview

Top guidance Double-digit volume growth trajectory maintained

Management reiterated commitment to double-digit volume CAGR, expecting Q3 to recover with festive and wedding demand.

Top risk Rising crude prices may reverse deflation benefits

Management noted that geopolitical tensions could increase crude and derivative prices, potentially leading to input cost inflation in H2.

View Risks →