Apl Apollo Tubes vs SRF Q4 FY26

APL Apollo reported a strong Q4 FY26 with 9% volume growth YoY and EBITDA per ton exceeding ₹5,500, driven by market leadership, product innovation, and steel shortages. Full-year operating cash flow was ₹20 billion and free cash flow ₹13 billion, with net cash of ₹15 billion+. However, the Middle East crisis, gas shortages, and steel price volatility disrupted operations, particularly in Dubai (40% utilization) and domestic galvanized lines. Management maintains FY27 guidance of 15-20% volume growth and 20-25% PAT growth, focusing on margin protection over volume. Risks include prolonged geopolitical disruption, energy shortages, and potential demand slowdown from construction site halts.

Guidance read

Volume growth 15-20% in FY27: Management targets 15-20% volume growth for FY27, with a focus on margin protection. PAT growth 20-25% in FY27: PAT growth target of 20-25% for FY27, supported by margin expansion. EBITDA per ton sustainable at ₹5,000-5,500: Management expects EBITDA per ton to remain in the ₹5,000-5,500 range going forward. Capex of ₹14,500 crore for 8 MTPA capacity by FY28: Total capex of ₹14,500 crore over next 2.5 years to reach 8 million tonnes capacity by FY28.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged Middle East crisis — The ongoing war has disrupted global supply chains and impacted Dubai operations at 40% utilization.; Energy shortages in India — Gas shortages caused temporary shutdowns in March; fear of recurrence may limit production to 80-85%.; Demand slowdown from construction halts — Construction sites halted due to labor shortages and raw material price inflation, delaying purchases.; Steel price volatility and inventory risk — Rapid steel price increases may lead to destocking; however, low inventory days mitigate mark-to-market risk..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.

SR

SRF

Q4 FY26 · Other

SRF delivered a strong FY26 with revenue of ₹15,787 crore (+7% YoY), EBITDA of ₹3,800 crore (+29% YoY), and PAT of ₹1,835 crore (+47% YoY), driven by record fluoro-chemicals performance and margin expansion. The chemicals business grew 16% to ₹7,779 crore, while performance films and technical textiles showed recovery. Management guided for 15-20% growth in chemicals in FY27, supported by HFC debottlenecking, specialty chemicals recovery, and new capacities (HFO, fluoropolymers, BOPP). Key risks include geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, forex mark-to-market losses, and pricing pressure in specialty chemicals from Chinese competition.

Guidance read

Chemicals business growth 15-20% in FY27: Management expects the chemicals segment to grow 15-20% in FY27, driven by HFC volumes, specialty recovery, and new capacities. HFO plant commissioning by Feb 2028: The new HFO plant in Odisha is expected to be commissioned by February 2028, with all three products coming up in parallel. BOPP line to commence production in July 2026: The new BOPP line is on track to start production in July 2026, strengthening the packaging films portfolio. PA line (BOPA) operational by September 2027: A state-of-the-art polyamide line, India's first based on simultaneous stretching, will be operational by September 2027 with an investment of ₹180 crore.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical disruption in Middle East — Sales into the Middle East were impacted in Q4 due to geopolitical tensions, though management rerouted shipments to other markets.; Forex mark-to-market losses — Sharp rupee depreciation led to mark-to-market losses on forward hedges, impacting FY26 results and expected to persist near-term.; Pricing pressure from Chinese competition in specialty chemicals — Aggressive Chinese pricing has compressed margins in specialty chemicals; management expects normalization but timing uncertain.; HCFC quota uncertainty — Government has not clarified whether HCFC production will be included in baseline quota calculations, creating regulatory risk for HFC capacity expansion..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.