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View Claim Ledger →Affle 3i Ltd — Q4 FY26
Affle 3i delivered a steady Q4 FY26 with revenue of INR 7.24B (+20.3% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 1.61B (+20.3% YoY), marking the 13th consecutive quarter of sequential topline growth.
bullish
high
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Affle 3i delivered a steady Q4 FY26 with revenue of INR 7.24B (+20.3% YoY) and EBITDA of INR 1.61B (+20.3% YoY), marking the 13th consecutive quarter of sequential topline growth. PAT grew 16% YoY to INR 1.22B, impacted by a higher tax base. The CPCU model drove 120.3M conversions at a CPC rate of INR 60. Growth was broad-based across India (+19.5%), emerging markets (+22.3%), and developed markets (+18%). Management reaffirmed medium-term guidance of 20%+ organic CAGR and announced a preferential warrant issue to raise ~INR 11B for M&A, targeting a meaningful acquisition within calendar 2026. Key risk: gross margin compression from continued investment in premium inventory and verticalization may pressure near-term profitability.
Promises0 met · 3 missedRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Gross margin compression from investment in premium inventory
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Read Transcript →Quarter Snapshot
Conversions (CPCU)
120.3M
+?% YoY
Quarterly conversions at a CPC rate of INR 60, driving CPCU revenue of INR 7.21B.
CPC Rate
INR 60
flat YoY
Cost per conversion remained stable at INR 60, indicating pricing discipline.
India Revenue Growth
19.5% YoY
+19.5pp YoY
India revenue grew 19.5% YoY, contributing to the overall broad-based growth.
Developed Markets Revenue Growth
18% YoY
+18pp YoY
Developed markets grew 18% YoY despite geopolitical headwinds, contributing 28.4% of revenue.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
Medium-term organic growth of 20%+ CAGR
Management reiterated its medium-term guidance of 20%+ organic CAGR, underpinned by AI investments and verticalization.
NEW
EBITDA margin target of 23-25% over time
Management guided towards EBITDA margins of 23-25% over a period of time, up from current ~22.3%.
NEW
Meaningful M&A transaction within calendar 2026
Management expects to conclude a meaningfully sized acquisition within calendar 2026, funded by the INR 11B warrant issue.
DROPPED
Revenue growth target of 18-20%
Management expects revenue growth in the 18-20% range, with EBITDA growth of 23-25% and margin expansion.
DROPPED
EBITDA growth to outpace revenue
Internal KPIs target combined revenue and EBITDA growth of ~45%, with EBITDA growth faster than revenue.
DROPPED
One meaningful acquisition in 2026
Management shortlisted 4 targets from 12 and expects to close a sizeable acquisition in 2026, following historical playbook.
DROPPED
Q4 revenue likely flattish to slightly down vs Q3
Normal seasonality suggests Q3 is peak; Q4 may see slight dip but could surprise positively if geopolitical conditions remain stable.
NEW RISK
Gross margin compression from investment in premium inventory
Gross margins have declined from ~39% to ~36% over recent quarters due to investments in premium inventory and verticalization, which may continue to pressure near-term margins.
NEW RISK
Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds
Management acknowledged temporary softness in select markets due to geopolitical events, which could impact growth if conditions worsen.
NEW RISK
Execution risk in M&A integration
Management is pursuing multiple acquisition targets; integration and transformation to CPCU model may take time and could dilute near-term financials.
RISK GONE
Geopolitical uncertainty impacting advertiser budgets
Management noted that global geopolitical tensions could cause advertisers to pull back spending, affecting Q4 and beyond.
RISK GONE
Inventory cost investment may pressure near-term margins
Data and inventory costs rose as a percentage of revenue due to investments in verticalization for international markets; management expects this to continue for a few more quarters.
RISK GONE
Real money gaming ban impact on India revenue
The RMG ban resulted in a ~INR 10-12 crore revenue loss in Q3 compared to base, though offset by broad-based growth.
RISK GONE
Agency payment cycles causing temporary OCF dip
OCF/PAT ratio fell to 75.8% due to agency audits; management expects normalization but any delay could affect cash flows.
🤫 Topics management stopped discussing
Mentioned in Q2 FY26, Q3 FY26
Management expects revenue growth in the 18-20% range, with EBITDA growth of 23-25% and margin expansion.
Fast read
Guidance and risk preview
Management reiterated its medium-term guidance of 20%+ organic CAGR, underpinned by AI investments and verticalization.
Gross margins have declined from ~39% to ~36% over recent quarters due to investments in premium inventory and verticalization, which may continue...
View Risks →