Adani Ports vs Mahindra Logistics Q4 FY26

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Adani Ports

Q4 FY26 · Infrastructure

Adani Ports delivered a strong FY26, exceeding guidance across revenue, EBITDA, and capex. Revenue grew 25% YoY, EBITDA 20%, and PAT 16%, driven by domestic port market share of 27.1%, international port EBITDA surging 180% (led by CWIT Colombo and NQXT Australia), and logistics revenue up 55% with ROCE doubling to 10%. Management unveiled 'Ambition 2031' targeting 1 billion tonnes cargo (850Mt domestic) with 20% ROCE and 18-19% CAGR. Near-term guidance for FY27 is conservative (11-16% revenue growth) due to West Asia disruptions and business mix normalization. Key risk: prolonged Middle East crisis could further pressure container volumes and margins.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth 11-16%: Management guided for FY27 revenue growth of 11-16%, assuming conservative assumptions amid West Asia disruptions. Ambition 2031: 1 Billion Tonnes Cargo: Target to handle 1 billion tonnes of cargo by FY31, including 850 million tonnes domestic, with 20% ROCE. Net Debt to EBITDA Ceiling of 2.5x: Management reiterated net debt to EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x, with flexibility for strategic M&A up to ~3.2x. Capex Acceleration in FY27: Capex guided at ₹12,000-14,000 crore for FY27, accelerated for Mundra CT5, Dhamra expansion, and Vizhinjam phase two.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged West Asia Crisis Impact — Continued disruptions in the Middle East could further depress container volumes and margins, especially at Mundra and Tuna.; Margin Compression from Business Mix Shift — EBITDA margin declined to ~56% due to free storage, dry cargo mix changes, and operational resets; recovery timing uncertain.; Concession Renewal Uncertainty — Talks for port concession extensions (e.g., Mundra) are ongoing but timing and terms are not controlled by management.; Currency Depreciation Impact on Debt — Rupee depreciation increases gross debt burden; management uses natural hedges but exposure remains..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

Mahindra Logistics reported a strong Q4 FY26 with consolidated revenue of ₹1,791 crore (+14% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of ₹57 crore (+54% YoY), marking a return to PAT profitability at ₹20.2 crore versus a loss last year. The turnaround was driven by disciplined execution across segments: contract logistics grew 12% with gross margin expansion, express logistics (MSPL) achieved gross margin positivity for the full year and is nearing EBITDA breakeven, and last-mile delivery swung to EBITDA profit after strategic pruning. Management highlighted a 3.2% adjusted EBITDA margin (up 90 bps YoY) and reiterated commitment to reducing warehouse white space by September 2026. Key risks include geopolitical headwinds in freight forwarding and potential inflationary impact from diesel price increases, though fuel costs are fully pass-through.

Guidance read

Express business targeting EBITDA breakeven soon: Management stated they are 'very close' to EBITDA breakeven in the express logistics segment, without committing a specific timeline. Warehouse white space reduction by Sep 2026: Commitment to reduce white space by 95% from 1.6M sq ft by September 2026, with current glide path on track. Express business revenue growth of mid-to-high teens: Management guided for mid-to-high teens revenue growth in the express business for FY27, driven by volume and yield improvement. Entry into new contract logistics segments in FY27: Company evaluating two new segments and will enter one of them during FY27 to improve mix and profitability.

Risk read

Key risks include Geopolitical headwinds in freight forwarding — West Asia war causing trade lane disruptions, higher freight premiums, and insurance costs, impacting freight forwarding business near-term.; Diesel price inflation impact on economy — Management expressed concern that a sharp diesel price increase could slow the broader economy, though fuel costs are pass-through to customers.; Express business still loss-making at EBITDA level — Despite gross margin positivity, express business reported ₹31 crore EBITDA loss for FY26, though losses reduced from ₹51 crore in FY25.; Potential inventory overhang from supply chain disruptions — If West Asia disruptions persist, customers may have consumed inventory, leading to demand slowdown in other segments..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.