Adani Ports vs Keystone Realtors Q4 FY26

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Adani Ports

Q4 FY26 · Infrastructure

Adani Ports delivered a strong FY26, exceeding guidance across revenue, EBITDA, and capex. Revenue grew 25% YoY, EBITDA 20%, and PAT 16%, driven by domestic port market share of 27.1%, international port EBITDA surging 180% (led by CWIT Colombo and NQXT Australia), and logistics revenue up 55% with ROCE doubling to 10%. Management unveiled 'Ambition 2031' targeting 1 billion tonnes cargo (850Mt domestic) with 20% ROCE and 18-19% CAGR. Near-term guidance for FY27 is conservative (11-16% revenue growth) due to West Asia disruptions and business mix normalization. Key risk: prolonged Middle East crisis could further pressure container volumes and margins.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth 11-16%: Management guided for FY27 revenue growth of 11-16%, assuming conservative assumptions amid West Asia disruptions. Ambition 2031: 1 Billion Tonnes Cargo: Target to handle 1 billion tonnes of cargo by FY31, including 850 million tonnes domestic, with 20% ROCE. Net Debt to EBITDA Ceiling of 2.5x: Management reiterated net debt to EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x, with flexibility for strategic M&A up to ~3.2x. Capex Acceleration in FY27: Capex guided at ₹12,000-14,000 crore for FY27, accelerated for Mundra CT5, Dhamra expansion, and Vizhinjam phase two.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged West Asia Crisis Impact — Continued disruptions in the Middle East could further depress container volumes and margins, especially at Mundra and Tuna.; Margin Compression from Business Mix Shift — EBITDA margin declined to ~56% due to free storage, dry cargo mix changes, and operational resets; recovery timing uncertain.; Concession Renewal Uncertainty — Talks for port concession extensions (e.g., Mundra) are ongoing but timing and terms are not controlled by management.; Currency Depreciation Impact on Debt — Rupee depreciation increases gross debt burden; management uses natural hedges but exposure remains..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

Keystone Realtors delivered a stellar Q4 FY26 with pre-sales of ₹1,346 crore, up 58% YoY, and full-year pre-sales of ₹4,022 crore (+33% YoY), meeting guidance. The company achieved its highest-ever quarterly pre-sales, driven by strong demand in premium and emerging premium segments. Collections rose 13% to ₹2,622 crore, and operational cash flow stood at ₹715 crore. Management guided for FY27 pre-sales of ₹5,000 crore and reiterated the FY30 target of ₹10,000 crore, supported by a robust pipeline of cluster redevelopments and commercial annuity assets. The transition to percentage-of-completion accounting will better reflect margins. A key risk is potential input cost inflation (8-13% on certain items) due to global commodity volatility, though the company's pricing strategy provides some insulation.

Guidance read

FY27 pre-sales target of ₹5,000 crore: Management guided for pre-sales of ₹5,000 crore in FY27, representing ~25% growth over FY26. FY30 pre-sales target of ₹10,000 crore: Long-term target to achieve ₹10,000 crore pre-sales by FY30, implying a CAGR of ~26% from FY27. FY27 project launches of ₹8,000 crore GDV: Management expects to launch projects with an estimated GDV of ₹8,000 crore in FY27. FY27 business development of ₹8,000+ crore GDV: Target to acquire projects with GDV of ₹8,000 crore or more in FY27.

Risk read

Key risks include Input cost inflation — Commodity price volatility (steel, aluminium, glass) could increase construction costs by ~5% overall, with certain items up 8-13%.; Legacy project margin drag — Legacy low-margin projects (e.g., Crown) still contribute 62% of revenue in FY26; full transition to high-margin projects expected only by FY28.; Geopolitical risk impacting demand — Middle East crisis could slow footfalls and conversions, especially in the 1-3 crore segment, though premium demand remains resilient..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.