Adani Ports vs JSW Infrastructure Q4 FY26

AD

Adani Ports

Q4 FY26 · Infrastructure

Adani Ports delivered a strong FY26, exceeding guidance across revenue, EBITDA, and capex. Revenue grew 25% YoY, EBITDA 20%, and PAT 16%, driven by domestic port market share of 27.1%, international port EBITDA surging 180% (led by CWIT Colombo and NQXT Australia), and logistics revenue up 55% with ROCE doubling to 10%. Management unveiled 'Ambition 2031' targeting 1 billion tonnes cargo (850Mt domestic) with 20% ROCE and 18-19% CAGR. Near-term guidance for FY27 is conservative (11-16% revenue growth) due to West Asia disruptions and business mix normalization. Key risk: prolonged Middle East crisis could further pressure container volumes and margins.

Guidance read

FY27 Revenue Growth 11-16%: Management guided for FY27 revenue growth of 11-16%, assuming conservative assumptions amid West Asia disruptions. Ambition 2031: 1 Billion Tonnes Cargo: Target to handle 1 billion tonnes of cargo by FY31, including 850 million tonnes domestic, with 20% ROCE. Net Debt to EBITDA Ceiling of 2.5x: Management reiterated net debt to EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x, with flexibility for strategic M&A up to ~3.2x. Capex Acceleration in FY27: Capex guided at ₹12,000-14,000 crore for FY27, accelerated for Mundra CT5, Dhamra expansion, and Vizhinjam phase two.

Risk read

Key risks include Prolonged West Asia Crisis Impact — Continued disruptions in the Middle East could further depress container volumes and margins, especially at Mundra and Tuna.; Margin Compression from Business Mix Shift — EBITDA margin declined to ~56% due to free storage, dry cargo mix changes, and operational resets; recovery timing uncertain.; Concession Renewal Uncertainty — Talks for port concession extensions (e.g., Mundra) are ongoing but timing and terms are not controlled by management.; Currency Depreciation Impact on Debt — Rupee depreciation increases gross debt burden; management uses natural hedges but exposure remains..

Promise ledger

Of 1 tracked promise, management 0 met, 0 close, 1 missed.

JSW Infrastructure delivered a resilient Q4 FY26 with consolidated revenue of ₹1,522 crore (+19% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹769 crore (+20% YoY), despite a ~₹30 crore EBITDA hit from Middle East disruptions at its Fujairah terminal. Port segment revenue grew 12% YoY to ₹1,295 crore, driven by price hikes at Goa/Mangalore and ancillary services. Logistics EBITDA surged 14x to ₹118 crore for the full year, aided by Navkar's capacity utilization rising to 60% and the acquisition of 25 rakes. Management maintained FY27 EBITDA guidance of ₹3,000 crore and FY28 target of ₹5,000 crore, underpinned by brownfield expansions and the SMPA Kolkata terminal commencing interim operations. Key risks include further escalation in Middle East tensions delaying Fujairah recovery and potential environmental compliance costs at Dharamtar.

Guidance read

FY27 Consolidated EBITDA Guidance of ₹3,000 crore: Management reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA target of ₹3,000 crore, implying 15% growth over FY26 base of ₹2,604 crore. FY28 Consolidated EBITDA Target of ₹5,000 crore: EBITDA expected to nearly double from FY26 to ₹5,000 crore by FY28, driven by port capacity additions and logistics ramp-up. Logistics EBITDA Guidance of ₹400 crore in FY27 and ₹700 crore in FY28: Logistics segment EBITDA targets maintained at ₹400 crore for FY27 and ₹700 crore for FY28, with Navkar contributing ~₹200 crore. Capex Plan of ₹16,500 crore for FY27-28: Company plans to invest ~₹16,500 crore over FY27-28, with ₹13,000 crore for ports and ₹3,500 crore for logistics.

Risk read

Key risks include Middle East Geopolitical Disruption at Fujairah — Damage to three storage tanks at the Fujairah terminal due to regional conflict; operations expected to normalize progressively but timing uncertain.; Environmental Compliance at Dharamtar Port — Analyst raised concerns about an environmental committee report on dust spillover affecting mangroves; management confirmed compliance but risk of regulatory action remains.; Insurance Claim Uncertainty for Fujairah — Company has filed insurance claim for asset damage and loss of profit, but management noted the region is seeing such events for the first time, leading to a ₹68 crore provision.; Volume Deferment Due to Vessel Availability — Lower vessel availability and higher freight costs led to cargo deferments at Indian operations, impacting Q4 volumes..

Promise ledger

Scorecard data is being built as historical quarters are processed.