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Adani Energy Solutions Ltd — Q4 FY26
Adani Energy Solutions delivered a strong Q4 FY26, with consolidated EBITDA reaching ₹8,726 crore for the full year, driven by record smart meter installations of 83 lakh units (vs.
bullish
high
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Adani Energy Solutions delivered a strong Q4 FY26, with consolidated EBITDA reaching ₹8,726 crore for the full year, driven by record smart meter installations of 83 lakh units (vs. 70 lakh target) and the commissioning of the Mumbai HVDC project. The company guided for FY27 capex of ₹21,000-22,000 crore, with transmission accounting for ₹15,500 crore, and expects EBITDA to triple over the next 36-40 months as the locked-in transmission portfolio capitalizes. Management highlighted improved credit ratings (AAA/AAA+), a 29% win rate in transmission bids, and a growing CNI (Commercial & Industrial) segment with 5 GW of renewable capacity tied up. Key risks include potential delays in right-of-way (RoW) approvals for transmission projects and the impact of policy debates on transmission cost optimization versus battery storage.
Promises0 met · 3 missedRisks3 trackedTranscriptfull text
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Right-of-way (RoW) delays
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Smart meters installed (FY26)
83 lakh
+19% vs target
Surpassed the 70 lakh target; highest annual installation globally.
Transmission bid win rate
29%
+4pp YoY
Improved from 25% last year; targeting 25-30% market share.
Distribution losses (AT&C)
4.2%
-430bps vs start
Reduced from 8.5% over time; best-in-class among Indian discoms.
CNI renewable capacity contracted
5 GW
new
Includes 1.4 GW third-party; positioned for data center demand.
What Changed vs Last Quarter
NEW
FY27 capex of ₹21,000-22,000 crore
Transmission ₹15,500 cr, distribution ₹2,350 cr, smart metering ₹3,900 cr.
NEW
FY28 capex of ~₹23,000 crore
Transmission ₹20,000 cr, distribution ₹2,000 cr, smart metering ₹1,500 cr (based on current order book).
NEW
EBITDA to triple in 36-40 months
Based on locked-in transmission tariffs and capitalization of ₹77,000 cr under-construction pipeline.
UPDATED
Smart meter installations of 1 crore in FY27
Up from 83 lakh in FY26; confident based on current ramp-up.
DROPPED
Capitalization of ₹25,000 crore in next 12-15 months
Seven transmission projects to be capitalized, including Mumbai HVDC (₹10,000 cr in 2 months), Kava Phase 3/Halwat/WRSR (₹4,800 cr in 3-5 months), and three more (₹10,000 cr by FY27-end).
DROPPED
Transmission capex of ₹18,000-20,000 crore per year for next 5 years
Annual capex in transmission, including HVDC and non-HVDC, expected in this range.
DROPPED
Leverage to remain at 4.0-4.5x net debt/EBITDA
Company guided to maintain leverage in the range of 4.0-4.5x based on capex cycles.
NEW RISK
Right-of-way (RoW) delays
Despite government efforts, land acquisition and forest clearances remain a challenge for transmission projects.
NEW RISK
Policy shift towards battery storage
Debate on optimizing transmission costs via co-located batteries could reduce long-term transmission opportunity.
NEW RISK
Supply chain constraints for equipment
While easing, GIS transformers and HVDC components still face capacity additions; management claims no impact so far.
RISK GONE
Execution delays from land acquisition and regulatory approvals
Several projects (Navinal, Jamnagar) delayed due to transmission license delays and land acquisition challenges; management expects to catch up but risks remain.
RISK GONE
Smart meter bidding slowdown
Analyst raised concern about lack of new smart meter orders; management expects bidding in next couple of quarters but no certainty.
RISK GONE
Capex spillover and downward revision
FY26 capex guidance revised down from ₹16,000 cr to ₹14,500-15,000 cr due to project spillovers, mainly in transmission.
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Guidance and risk preview
Transmission ₹15,500 cr, distribution ₹2,350 cr, smart metering ₹3,900 cr.
Despite government efforts, land acquisition and forest clearances remain a challenge for transmission projects.
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